Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has scaled its disclosed U.S. equity portfolio from roughly $225 million in early 2025 to $5.52 billion by the December 31, 2025 quarter-end through strong performance in AI infrastructure names and substantial limited-partner inflows. The firm’s concentrated strategy targets power-generation, data-center, and semiconductor bottlenecks critical to AI scaling, as evidenced by its largest Q4 2025 positions in Bloom Energy and call options on Intel and CoreWeave. Market-implied odds for additions in the March 31, 2026 13F-HR, due by mid-May, therefore hinge on recent share-price momentum and volatility in rate-sensitive infrastructure equities, alongside any public signals from Aschenbrenner on evolving exposure to energy and compute assets. Traders also monitor capital flows and sector rotation that could prompt new initiations or expansions ahead of the filing deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$121 거래량
2026.05.15
Constellation Energy
12%
Eaton
8%
GE Vernova
12%
MARA Holdings
9%
Micron
50%
Oklo
7%
Qualcomm
50%
TeraWulf
7%
Vertiv
28%
Vistra Energy
12%
$121 거래량
Constellation Energy
$0 거래량
12%
Eaton
$0 거래량
8%
GE Vernova
$0 거래량
12%
MARA Holdings
$0 거래량
9%
Micron
$50 거래량
50%
Oklo
$0 거래량
7%
Qualcomm
$54 거래량
50%
TeraWulf
$0 거래량
7%
Vertiv
$10 거래량
28%
Vistra Energy
$7 거래량
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has scaled its disclosed U.S. equity portfolio from roughly $225 million in early 2025 to $5.52 billion by the December 31, 2025 quarter-end through strong performance in AI infrastructure names and substantial limited-partner inflows. The firm’s concentrated strategy targets power-generation, data-center, and semiconductor bottlenecks critical to AI scaling, as evidenced by its largest Q4 2025 positions in Bloom Energy and call options on Intel and CoreWeave. Market-implied odds for additions in the March 31, 2026 13F-HR, due by mid-May, therefore hinge on recent share-price momentum and volatility in rate-sensitive infrastructure equities, alongside any public signals from Aschenbrenner on evolving exposure to energy and compute assets. Traders also monitor capital flows and sector rotation that could prompt new initiations or expansions ahead of the filing deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
거래량
$121종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has scaled its disclosed U.S. equity portfolio from roughly $225 million in early 2025 to $5.52 billion by the December 31, 2025 quarter-end through strong performance in AI infrastructure names and substantial limited-partner inflows. The firm’s concentrated strategy targets power-generation, data-center, and semiconductor bottlenecks critical to AI scaling, as evidenced by its largest Q4 2025 positions in Bloom Energy and call options on Intel and CoreWeave. Market-implied odds for additions in the March 31, 2026 13F-HR, due by mid-May, therefore hinge on recent share-price momentum and volatility in rate-sensitive infrastructure equities, alongside any public signals from Aschenbrenner on evolving exposure to energy and compute assets. Traders also monitor capital flows and sector rotation that could prompt new initiations or expansions ahead of the filing deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
거래량
$121종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has scaled its disclosed U.S. equity portfolio from roughly $225 million in early 2025 to $5.52 billion by the December 31, 2025 quarter-end through strong performance in AI infrastructure names and substantial limited-partner inflows. The firm’s concentrated strategy targets power-generation, data-center, and semiconductor bottlenecks critical to AI scaling, as evidenced by its largest Q4 2025 positions in Bloom Energy and call options on Intel and CoreWeave. Market-implied odds for additions in the March 31, 2026 13F-HR, due by mid-May, therefore hinge on recent share-price momentum and volatility in rate-sensitive infrastructure equities, alongside any public signals from Aschenbrenner on evolving exposure to energy and compute assets. Traders also monitor capital flows and sector rotation that could prompt new initiations or expansions ahead of the filing deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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