Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.2% implied probability for Bill Gates facing criminal charges by June 30, driven by the complete absence of any active federal investigation, indictment announcements, or grand jury activity from the DOJ or other U.S. authorities. Recent releases of Jeffrey Epstein files in early 2026 mentioned Gates' past meetings but explicitly noted no evidence of criminal wrongdoing, prompting only a House Oversight Committee subpoena for his June 10 testimony rather than prosecutorial steps. No developments in the past 30 days have altered this, with prior Epstein scrutiny failing to yield charges despite public interest. While unforeseen evidence could trigger a special counsel review or rapid indictment, the tight timeline and lack of procedural momentum render such shifts improbable.