Recent polling shows Michigan’s open Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers averaging a margin of roughly three points, with multiple late-September surveys placing the contest inside or near the margin of error. In contrast, New Hampshire’s matchup between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu shows a steadier Democratic lead of about five points across recent aggregators. Both states feature open seats after Democratic retirements, but Michigan’s tighter polling spread, combined with its history of narrow general-election finishes, drives trader consensus that it is more likely to produce the smaller final margin. No major campaign-altering events have shifted these dynamics in the past week.