Skip to main content
icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Polityka·Wybory W USA

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?
Polityka·Wybory W USA

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

6% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
6% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading at 30-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 20-23% each and 16% or more undecided. This fragmented field, combined with more than a dozen other candidates splitting remaining support, leaves no frontrunner near the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Historical patterns in Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries reinforce that top-two advancement to the November runoff remains the expected outcome absent a sudden consolidation of voter preferences before election day.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Wolumen
$1,237
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading at 30-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 20-23% each and 16% or more undecided. This fragmented field, combined with more than a dozen other candidates splitting remaining support, leaves no frontrunner near the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Historical patterns in Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries reinforce that top-two advancement to the November runoff remains the expected outcome absent a sudden consolidation of voter preferences before election day.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Wolumen
$1,237
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.

Często zadawane pytania

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 6% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 6¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 6% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony May 15, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" to 6% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 6% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.