**Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and aligned Chinese weather services project a high of 21°C for October 4 under clear skies and persistent northerly winds of 3–4 levels with gusts to 7, driven by a cold air mass that has lowered temperatures from the prior day's 23–24°C peak.** This consensus, reflected in multiple monitoring stations and model runs, underpins the market's near-certain 21°C outcome. The 25°C scenario would require a significant forecast bust, such as unexpected southerly flow or model underestimation of warming, but current observations and steering patterns make such deviation highly improbable before resolution.