**Trader sentiment centers on coastal moderation amid a broader California heat wave setup.** With the National Weather Service highlighting high pressure building inland from August 1–2, interior valleys face extreme heat risks, yet San Francisco’s marine layer and persistent sea breeze are expected to limit the highest temperature to the mid-70s. Long-range guidance and monthly forecasts place typical early-August highs near 68–72°F, but recent model consensus shows slight above-average warmth (around 73°F seasonal signal) as onshore flow weakens modestly. This positions the 76–77°F bin as the modal outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 74–75°F (24.5%) and 78–79°F (22%), reflecting uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and timing of any warming. Stronger fog or breeze would favor the lower bins, while any temporary offshore shift could push readings into the upper 70s. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around near-normal coastal conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 2?
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 25%
78-79°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
67°F or below
$1,361 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$32 Wol.
1%
70-71°F
$26 Wol.
1%
72-73°F
$5 Wol.
5%
74-75°F
$551 Wol.
25%
76-77°F
$16 Wol.
36%
78-79°F
$126 Wol.
22%
80-81°F
$279 Wol.
14%
82-83°F
$953 Wol.
1%
84-85°F
$889 Wol.
1%
86°F or higher
$961 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on coastal moderation amid a broader California heat wave setup.** With the National Weather Service highlighting high pressure building inland from August 1–2, interior valleys face extreme heat risks, yet San Francisco’s marine layer and persistent sea breeze are expected to limit the highest temperature to the mid-70s. Long-range guidance and monthly forecasts place typical early-August highs near 68–72°F, but recent model consensus shows slight above-average warmth (around 73°F seasonal signal) as onshore flow weakens modestly.
This positions the 76–77°F bin as the modal outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 74–75°F (24.5%) and 78–79°F (22%), reflecting uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and timing of any warming. Stronger fog or breeze would favor the lower bins, while any temporary offshore shift could push readings into the upper 70s. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around near-normal coastal conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,197Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on coastal moderation amid a broader California heat wave setup.** With the National Weather Service highlighting high pressure building inland from August 1–2, interior valleys face extreme heat risks, yet San Francisco’s marine layer and persistent sea breeze are expected to limit the highest temperature to the mid-70s. Long-range guidance and monthly forecasts place typical early-August highs near 68–72°F, but recent model consensus shows slight above-average warmth (around 73°F seasonal signal) as onshore flow weakens modestly.
This positions the 76–77°F bin as the modal outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 74–75°F (24.5%) and 78–79°F (22%), reflecting uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and timing of any warming. Stronger fog or breeze would favor the lower bins, while any temporary offshore shift could push readings into the upper 70s. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around near-normal coastal conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$5,197Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on coastal moderation amid a broader California heat wave setup.** With the National Weather Service highlighting high pressure building inland from August 1–2, interior valleys face extreme heat risks, yet San Francisco’s marine layer and persistent sea breeze are expected to limit the highest temperature to the mid-70s. Long-range guidance and monthly forecasts place typical early-August highs near 68–72°F, but recent model consensus shows slight above-average warmth (around 73°F seasonal signal) as onshore flow weakens modestly. This positions the 76–77°F bin as the modal outcome at 35.5% implied probability, followed closely by 74–75°F (24.5%) and 78–79°F (22%), reflecting uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and timing of any warming. Stronger fog or breeze would favor the lower bins, while any temporary offshore shift could push readings into the upper 70s. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around near-normal coastal conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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