Persistent high-pressure patterns and an ongoing heatwave episode across northern France have elevated overnight minima in Paris, with recent Météo-France and ECMWF guidance indicating limited nocturnal cooling for August 3. Warm advection and high humidity suppress radiative heat loss, pushing expected lows into the upper teens to low 20s °C rather than the seasonal 15–16 °C baseline. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 19–20 °C because ensemble spreads show modest day-to-day variability but consistent warmth through the period, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any weakening ridge or Atlantic front. Updated model runs and official bulletins over the next 48 hours will determine whether minima dip toward 17–18 °C or hold near 21 °C.