Recent forecast models from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C on August 19, consistent with the market's leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. Post-Typhoon Dolphin impacts earlier in the month have left lingering cloud cover and moisture that may moderate peak heating, while typical late-August subtropical monsoon conditions—high humidity, urban heat island effects, and variable steering winds—support temperatures clustering around 30–32°C. Historical climatology shows August highs averaging 30–35°C, with recent similar markets resolving near 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?
31°C 48%
30°C 22%
32°C 19%
33°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
22%
31°C
48%
32°C
19%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 48%
30°C 22%
32°C 19%
33°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
$191 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$142 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$189 Wol.
1%
28°C
$130 Wol.
2%
29°C
$196 Wol.
5%
30°C
$594 Wol.
22%
31°C
$493 Wol.
48%
32°C
$124 Wol.
19%
33°C
$37 Wol.
5%
34°C
$257 Wol.
2%
35°C or higher
$273 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C on August 19, consistent with the market's leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. Post-Typhoon Dolphin impacts earlier in the month have left lingering cloud cover and moisture that may moderate peak heating, while typical late-August subtropical monsoon conditions—high humidity, urban heat island effects, and variable steering winds—support temperatures clustering around 30–32°C. Historical climatology shows August highs averaging 30–35°C, with recent similar markets resolving near 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,626Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C on August 19, consistent with the market's leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. Post-Typhoon Dolphin impacts earlier in the month have left lingering cloud cover and moisture that may moderate peak heating, while typical late-August subtropical monsoon conditions—high humidity, urban heat island effects, and variable steering winds—support temperatures clustering around 30–32°C. Historical climatology shows August highs averaging 30–35°C, with recent similar markets resolving near 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,626Data zakończenia
Aug 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C on August 19, consistent with the market's leading 45.5% implied probability for that outcome. Post-Typhoon Dolphin impacts earlier in the month have left lingering cloud cover and moisture that may moderate peak heating, while typical late-August subtropical monsoon conditions—high humidity, urban heat island effects, and variable steering winds—support temperatures clustering around 30–32°C. Historical climatology shows August highs averaging 30–35°C, with recent similar markets resolving near 31°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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