Recent numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles point to daytime maxima of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 3 as the most probable outcomes, reflecting a transitional high-pressure regime with mild northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances insolation. These levels exceed the long-term early-August climatological average of roughly 12°C, consistent with NIWA guidance for near-average or slightly above-average conditions in the Wellington region. Market-implied odds heavily favor this narrow band because ensemble consensus shows limited scope for stronger southerly advection or persistent marine layer that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Upcoming short-range model updates and official briefings will clarify any shifts from these current steering patterns and radiative forcing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?
16°C 54%
15°C 32%
17°C 11%
14°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
32%
16°C
54%
17°C
11%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 54%
15°C 32%
17°C 11%
14°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 3, 2026
10°C or below
$417 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$210 Wol.
<1%
12°C
$300 Wol.
<1%
13°C
$175 Wol.
2%
14°C
$384 Wol.
7%
15°C
$437 Wol.
32%
16°C
$1,258 Wol.
54%
17°C
$415 Wol.
11%
18°C
$22 Wol.
2%
19°C
$204 Wol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles point to daytime maxima of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 3 as the most probable outcomes, reflecting a transitional high-pressure regime with mild northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances insolation. These levels exceed the long-term early-August climatological average of roughly 12°C, consistent with NIWA guidance for near-average or slightly above-average conditions in the Wellington region. Market-implied odds heavily favor this narrow band because ensemble consensus shows limited scope for stronger southerly advection or persistent marine layer that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Upcoming short-range model updates and official briefings will clarify any shifts from these current steering patterns and radiative forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,823Data zakończenia
Aug 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles point to daytime maxima of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 3 as the most probable outcomes, reflecting a transitional high-pressure regime with mild northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances insolation. These levels exceed the long-term early-August climatological average of roughly 12°C, consistent with NIWA guidance for near-average or slightly above-average conditions in the Wellington region. Market-implied odds heavily favor this narrow band because ensemble consensus shows limited scope for stronger southerly advection or persistent marine layer that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Upcoming short-range model updates and official briefings will clarify any shifts from these current steering patterns and radiative forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,823Data zakończenia
Aug 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles point to daytime maxima of 15–16°C in Wellington on August 3 as the most probable outcomes, reflecting a transitional high-pressure regime with mild northerly flow and reduced cloud cover that enhances insolation. These levels exceed the long-term early-August climatological average of roughly 12°C, consistent with NIWA guidance for near-average or slightly above-average conditions in the Wellington region. Market-implied odds heavily favor this narrow band because ensemble consensus shows limited scope for stronger southerly advection or persistent marine layer that would otherwise suppress temperatures. Upcoming short-range model updates and official briefings will clarify any shifts from these current steering patterns and radiative forcing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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