Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have already occurred worldwide in 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan through mid-April. This early activity aligns with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, leaving the year on pace for a total exceeding eight by June 30. The subsequent three-week seismic lull since late April reflects normal Poisson-distributed variability with periods of quiet following clusters, yet it has not shifted trader consensus away from the 8+ outcome at 84% implied probability. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new model runs will clarify whether activity accelerates toward the historical baseline or remains subdued through the end of June.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle trzęsień ziemi 7,0 lub więcej do 30 czerwca?
Ile trzęsień ziemi 7,0 lub więcej do 30 czerwca?
$1,854,431 Wol.
$1,854,431 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
7
16%
8+
84%
$1,854,431 Wol.
$1,854,431 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
7
$289,143 Wol.
16%
8+
$551,702 Wol.
84%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have already occurred worldwide in 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan through mid-April. This early activity aligns with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, leaving the year on pace for a total exceeding eight by June 30. The subsequent three-week seismic lull since late April reflects normal Poisson-distributed variability with periods of quiet following clusters, yet it has not shifted trader consensus away from the 8+ outcome at 84% implied probability. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new model runs will clarify whether activity accelerates toward the historical baseline or remains subdued through the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,854,431Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have already occurred worldwide in 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan through mid-April. This early activity aligns with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, leaving the year on pace for a total exceeding eight by June 30. The subsequent three-week seismic lull since late April reflects normal Poisson-distributed variability with periods of quiet following clusters, yet it has not shifted trader consensus away from the 8+ outcome at 84% implied probability. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new model runs will clarify whether activity accelerates toward the historical baseline or remains subdued through the end of June.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$1,854,431Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have already occurred worldwide in 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan through mid-April. This early activity aligns with the long-term USGS average of roughly 15–16 such events annually, leaving the year on pace for a total exceeding eight by June 30. The subsequent three-week seismic lull since late April reflects normal Poisson-distributed variability with periods of quiet following clusters, yet it has not shifted trader consensus away from the 8+ outcome at 84% implied probability. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new model runs will clarify whether activity accelerates toward the historical baseline or remains subdued through the end of June.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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