Traders assign the highest probability to the 1-100 outcome for Trump Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, launched via executive order in September 2025 and opened for applications in December, has shown limited uptake through mid-May. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reported in late April that only one applicant has received approval after background vetting, despite earlier claims of $1.3 billion in commitments and hundreds of applications queued. The $1 million contribution requirement for residency, positioned as a revenue tool for deficit reduction, has faced slower demand than projected amid processing delays and comparisons to existing investor visa pathways. These developments reinforce market pricing around minimal annual volume while leaving room for acceleration if approval rates increase later in the year.