Few Republican House incumbents face serious primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, keeping total losses on track for the narrow 4-6 range that dominates trader pricing. Historical patterns show low primary defeat rates for the majority party outside redistricting years, and most GOP districts remain safely conservative with limited intra-party opposition. Confirmed losses include Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, alongside scattered other cases, but the pace has not accelerated into double digits. Remaining primaries through September offer limited opportunities for additional upsets absent major funding surges or high-profile endorsements against incumbents. Late developments such as unexpected retirements or coordinated challenges could push totals higher, yet current filing data and district dynamics support the market's strong consensus on modest overall turnover.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 92.8%
7-9 5.0%
10-12 3.4%
13-15 2.5%
$76,080 Wol.
$76,080 Wol.
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
3%
13-15
3%
>15
2%
4-6 92.8%
7-9 5.0%
10-12 3.4%
13-15 2.5%
$76,080 Wol.
$76,080 Wol.
≤3
$38,821 Wol.
<1%
4-6
$19,264 Wol.
93%
7-9
$6,315 Wol.
5%
10-12
$5,051 Wol.
3%
13-15
$3,933 Wol.
3%
>15
$2,696 Wol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Few Republican House incumbents face serious primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, keeping total losses on track for the narrow 4-6 range that dominates trader pricing. Historical patterns show low primary defeat rates for the majority party outside redistricting years, and most GOP districts remain safely conservative with limited intra-party opposition. Confirmed losses include Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, alongside scattered other cases, but the pace has not accelerated into double digits. Remaining primaries through September offer limited opportunities for additional upsets absent major funding surges or high-profile endorsements against incumbents. Late developments such as unexpected retirements or coordinated challenges could push totals higher, yet current filing data and district dynamics support the market's strong consensus on modest overall turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$76,080Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Few Republican House incumbents face serious primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, keeping total losses on track for the narrow 4-6 range that dominates trader pricing. Historical patterns show low primary defeat rates for the majority party outside redistricting years, and most GOP districts remain safely conservative with limited intra-party opposition. Confirmed losses include Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, alongside scattered other cases, but the pace has not accelerated into double digits. Remaining primaries through September offer limited opportunities for additional upsets absent major funding surges or high-profile endorsements against incumbents. Late developments such as unexpected retirements or coordinated challenges could push totals higher, yet current filing data and district dynamics support the market's strong consensus on modest overall turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Wolumen
$76,080Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Few Republican House incumbents face serious primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, keeping total losses on track for the narrow 4-6 range that dominates trader pricing. Historical patterns show low primary defeat rates for the majority party outside redistricting years, and most GOP districts remain safely conservative with limited intra-party opposition. Confirmed losses include Dan Crenshaw in Texas and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, alongside scattered other cases, but the pace has not accelerated into double digits. Remaining primaries through September offer limited opportunities for additional upsets absent major funding surges or high-profile endorsements against incumbents. Late developments such as unexpected retirements or coordinated challenges could push totals higher, yet current filing data and district dynamics support the market's strong consensus on modest overall turnover.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
45%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
80%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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