Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at 21–25 seats, a clear decline from its current 32, driving the elevated trader consensus on seat losses. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in surveys from firms such as Midgam, Lazar, and Kantar, while the broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers below or near the 61-seat majority threshold. Contributing pressures include voter fatigue tied to the security environment since October 2023, coalition frictions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and Likud’s internal primaries scheduled for mid-August. These factors have produced stable polling trends that align with the 85.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano86% szansa
$11,046 Wol.
$11,046 Wol.
Oct 27, 2026
86% szansa
$11,046 Wol.
$11,046 Wol.
Oct 27, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at 21–25 seats, a clear decline from its current 32, driving the elevated trader consensus on seat losses. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in surveys from firms such as Midgam, Lazar, and Kantar, while the broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers below or near the 61-seat majority threshold. Contributing pressures include voter fatigue tied to the security environment since October 2023, coalition frictions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and Likud’s internal primaries scheduled for mid-August. These factors have produced stable polling trends that align with the 85.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,046Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at 21–25 seats, a clear decline from its current 32, driving the elevated trader consensus on seat losses. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in surveys from firms such as Midgam, Lazar, and Kantar, while the broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers below or near the 61-seat majority threshold. Contributing pressures include voter fatigue tied to the security environment since October 2023, coalition frictions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and Likud’s internal primaries scheduled for mid-August. These factors have produced stable polling trends that align with the 85.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Wolumen
$11,046Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at 21–25 seats, a clear decline from its current 32, driving the elevated trader consensus on seat losses. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a direct competitor, frequently matching or exceeding Likud in surveys from firms such as Midgam, Lazar, and Kantar, while the broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers below or near the 61-seat majority threshold. Contributing pressures include voter fatigue tied to the security environment since October 2023, coalition frictions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and Likud’s internal primaries scheduled for mid-August. These factors have produced stable polling trends that align with the 85.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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