Recent polling averages place Likud at roughly 22 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its 32-seat result from 2022, reflecting sustained erosion of support amid a fragmented right-wing vote. New parties such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael have drawn voters from Likud’s base, while Naftali Bennett’s Together list and other centrist options further split the electorate. Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc hovers near 51 seats across most surveys, short of a majority, as security concerns and coalition fatigue continue to weigh on turnout dynamics. These patterns have produced broad trader consensus that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than in the prior cycle.