Recent polling averages place Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the single largest list, with Yashar typically projected at 21–23 seats and Likud at 19–22 in surveys conducted through October 22. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward Yashar at 70.5 percent implied probability. Benny Gantz’s withdrawal consolidated centrist support behind Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together party, widening the gap in multiple late-October polls, while Donald Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu provided a modest counter-lift to Likud without altering the overall ranking. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the main Zionist opposition reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in nearly all forecasts, leaving smaller parties and Arab lists as potential kingmakers but unlikely to shift the largest-party outcome before the October 27 vote.