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Wybory·Bliski Wschód

Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie

icon for Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie
Wybory·Bliski Wschód

Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie

Ruch Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Wol.

Ruch Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Wol.

Ruch Amal (Amal)

$63,909 Wol.

2%

Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)

$9,181 Wol.

<1%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$167,783 Wol.

<1%

Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP)

$46,764 Wol.

<1%

Wolny Ruch Patriotyczny (FPM)

$79,518 Wol.

<1%

Partia Taqaddom

$11,776 Wol.

<1%

Lana – Partia Socjaldemokratyczna (Lana)

$13,761 Wol.

<1%

Sojusz Watani (Watani)

$7,539 Wol.

<1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$52,901 Wol.

<1%

Partia Kataeb (Kataeb)

$7,370 Wol.

<1%

Ruch Marada (MM)

$8,688 Wol.

<1%

Islamska Grupa (IG)

$8,631 Wol.

<1%

Arabska Socjalistyczna Partia Baas w Libanie (Baas)

$10,710 Wol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$9,477 Wol.

<1%

Partia Socjalistyczna Postępu (PSP)

$55,015 Wol.

<1%

Ruch Niepodległości (IM)

$8,894 Wol.

<1%

Narodowa Partia Liberalna (NLP)

$9,599 Wol.

<1%

Partia Mada (Mada)

$28,113 Wol.

<1%

Ruch Godności (DM)

$29,195 Wol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 Wol.

<1%

Armeńska Federacja Rewolucyjna (ARF)

$10,552 Wol.

<1%

Partia Unii (UP)

$7,760 Wol.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$9,264 Wol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Wolumen
$666,219
Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Wolumen
$666,219
Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 23 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Ruch Amal (Amal)" z 2%, za nim "Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 2¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 2% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" wygenerował $666.2K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jan 6, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie", przeglądaj 23 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

To szeroko otwarty rynek. Obecnym liderem dla "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" jest "Ruch Amal (Amal)" z zaledwie 2%, a za nim "Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)" z 0%. Brak wyniku z wyraźną większością — traderzy widzą to jako wysoce niepewne, co może stwarzać unikalne okazje handlowe. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, więc dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby obserwować ewolucję prawdopodobieństw.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.