Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoZwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie
Ruch Amal (Amal) 2.1%
Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA) <1%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP) <1%
$666,219 Wol.
$666,219 Wol.
Ruch Amal (Amal)
2%
Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)
<1%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
<1%
Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP)
<1%
Wolny Ruch Patriotyczny (FPM)
<1%
Partia Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partia Socjaldemokratyczna (Lana)
<1%
Sojusz Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
<1%
Partia Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Ruch Marada (MM)
<1%
Islamska Grupa (IG)
<1%
Arabska Socjalistyczna Partia Baas w Libanie (Baas)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partia Socjalistyczna Postępu (PSP)
<1%
Ruch Niepodległości (IM)
<1%
Narodowa Partia Liberalna (NLP)
<1%
Partia Mada (Mada)
<1%
Ruch Godności (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armeńska Federacja Rewolucyjna (ARF)
<1%
Partia Unii (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
Ruch Amal (Amal) 2.1%
Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA) <1%
Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%
Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP) <1%
$666,219 Wol.
$666,219 Wol.
Ruch Amal (Amal)
2%
Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)
<1%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
<1%
Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP)
<1%
Wolny Ruch Patriotyczny (FPM)
<1%
Partia Taqaddom
<1%
Lana – Partia Socjaldemokratyczna (Lana)
<1%
Sojusz Watani (Watani)
<1%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
<1%
Partia Kataeb (Kataeb)
<1%
Ruch Marada (MM)
<1%
Islamska Grupa (IG)
<1%
Arabska Socjalistyczna Partia Baas w Libanie (Baas)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Partia Socjalistyczna Postępu (PSP)
<1%
Ruch Niepodległości (IM)
<1%
Narodowa Partia Liberalna (NLP)
<1%
Partia Mada (Mada)
<1%
Ruch Godności (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armeńska Federacja Rewolucyjna (ARF)
<1%
Partia Unii (UP)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing conflict with Israel, including recent U.S.-mediated talks in Rome and Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, prompted parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone elections from May 2026 until 2028, extending its term amid security and logistical disruptions. This delay, combined with efforts to restrict Hezbollah's military activities and broader political fragmentation across sectarian lines, has left the contest wide open, reflected in trader consensus assigning negligible implied probabilities to all listed parties. Amal Movement edges slightly higher due to Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role in mediation and Shia community representation, yet even its position faces pressure from internal rifts and disarmament debates. Key differentiators include alliances with or opposition to Hezbollah, diaspora voting mechanics, and reformist versus established blocs, while upcoming diplomatic developments or shifts in the conflict could consolidate support ahead of the rescheduled vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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