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Wybory·Bliski Wschód

Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie

icon for Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie
Wybory·Bliski Wschód

Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie

Ruch Amal (Amal) 6.7%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Partia Taqaddom 3.3%

ReLebanon 3.0%

Polymarket

$532,450 Wol.

Ruch Amal (Amal) 6.7%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Partia Taqaddom 3.3%

ReLebanon 3.0%

Polymarket

$532,450 Wol.

Ruch Amal (Amal)

$53,709 Wol.

7%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$158,091 Wol.

5%

Partia Taqaddom

$6,113 Wol.

3%

ReLebanon

$3,307 Wol.

3%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$44,038 Wol.

3%

Ruch Marada (MM)

$3,796 Wol.

3%

Stowarzyszenie Islamskich Projektów Dobroczynnych (ICPA)

$4,398 Wol.

3%

Sojusz Watani (Watani)

$4,686 Wol.

2%

Wolny Ruch Patriotyczny (FPM)

$74,483 Wol.

2%

Partia Kataeb (Kataeb)

$4,126 Wol.

1%

Partia Unii (UP)

$3,376 Wol.

1%

Narodowa Partia Liberalna (NLP)

$5,135 Wol.

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$4,584 Wol.

1%

Partia Dialogu Narodowego (NDP)

$41,888 Wol.

<1%

Islamska Grupa (IG)

$3,585 Wol.

<1%

Armeńska Federacja Rewolucyjna (ARF)

$5,112 Wol.

<1%

Partia Mada (Mada)

$24,363 Wol.

<1%

Lana – Partia Socjaldemokratyczna (Lana)

$4,450 Wol.

<1%

Arabska Socjalistyczna Partia Baas w Libanie (Baas)

$6,573 Wol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,330 Wol.

<1%

Partia Socjalistyczna Postępu (PSP)

$47,456 Wol.

<1%

Ruch Niepodległości (IM)

$3,135 Wol.

<1%

Ruch Godności (DM)

$22,716 Wol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, face extended uncertainty after parliament voted in March to postpone them by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting and widespread displacement. This delay, driven by Speaker Nabih Berri and supported by a slim majority, has fragmented trader sentiment across dozens of parties, with no contender exceeding single-digit implied probabilities. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces lead modestly due to their established Shiite and Christian bases, while smaller groups like Taqaddom and ReLebanon remain marginal without broad alliances. Key differentiators include cross-sectarian coalition-building capacity, positioning on Hezbollah's disarmament demands, and resilience amid economic crisis and war fallout. Support could consolidate only through major diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in voter turnout patterns once a firm election timeline emerges.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Wolumen
$532,450
Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, face extended uncertainty after parliament voted in March to postpone them by two years amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah fighting and widespread displacement. This delay, driven by Speaker Nabih Berri and supported by a slim majority, has fragmented trader sentiment across dozens of parties, with no contender exceeding single-digit implied probabilities. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces lead modestly due to their established Shiite and Christian bases, while smaller groups like Taqaddom and ReLebanon remain marginal without broad alliances. Key differentiators include cross-sectarian coalition-building capacity, positioning on Hezbollah's disarmament demands, and resilience amid economic crisis and war fallout. Support could consolidate only through major diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in voter turnout patterns once a firm election timeline emerges.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Wolumen
$532,450
Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 23 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Ruch Amal (Amal)" z 7%, za nim "Lebanese Forces (LF)" z 5%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 7¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 7% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" wygenerował $532.5K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jan 6, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie", przeglądaj 23 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

To szeroko otwarty rynek. Obecnym liderem dla "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" jest "Ruch Amal (Amal)" z zaledwie 7%, a za nim "Lebanese Forces (LF)" z 5%. Brak wyniku z wyraźną większością — traderzy widzą to jako wysoce niepewne, co może stwarzać unikalne okazje handlowe. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, więc dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby obserwować ewolucję prawdopodobieństw.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Zwycięzca wyborów parlamentarnych w Libanie" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.