Stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and incomplete Phase I commitments continue to block progress toward an official Phase II ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. As of mid-May 2026, Israeli strikes—including one that killed the son of a senior Hamas negotiator—have intensified amid ongoing ceasefire violations, while both sides remain deadlocked: Israel conditions further steps on full demilitarization, and Hamas insists on completing hostage releases, aid surges, and withdrawals from Phase I first. U.S.-backed efforts, including the Board of Peace and a technocratic Palestinian committee, have advanced governance structures on paper but produced no binding accord. Recent disruptions and Israeli demands for security guarantees before reconstruction widen the gap, leaving trader sentiment focused on whether diplomatic pressure or renewed escalation could force a breakthrough before mid-2026 deadlines.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$2,748,479 Wol.
30 czerwca
13%
$2,748,479 Wol.
30 czerwca
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.
An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and incomplete Phase I commitments continue to block progress toward an official Phase II ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. As of mid-May 2026, Israeli strikes—including one that killed the son of a senior Hamas negotiator—have intensified amid ongoing ceasefire violations, while both sides remain deadlocked: Israel conditions further steps on full demilitarization, and Hamas insists on completing hostage releases, aid surges, and withdrawals from Phase I first. U.S.-backed efforts, including the Board of Peace and a technocratic Palestinian committee, have advanced governance structures on paper but produced no binding accord. Recent disruptions and Israeli demands for security guarantees before reconstruction widen the gap, leaving trader sentiment focused on whether diplomatic pressure or renewed escalation could force a breakthrough before mid-2026 deadlines.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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