Israeli naval forces have already intercepted multiple vessels from the Global Sumud Flotilla and related efforts in international waters near Greece and Crete in late April and early May 2026, detaining crews and redirecting ships while enforcing the long-standing maritime blockade of Gaza. With the May 31 resolution deadline now less than two weeks away and remaining boats still hundreds of nautical miles distant, traders assign near-certainty to the “No” outcome. Historical precedent of swift interceptions, combined with Israel’s repeated public commitments to prevent unauthorized approaches, reinforces this positioning. The only plausible shifts would require an abrupt change in enforcement policy or undetected transit by the final vessels within the narrow remaining window, both of which face substantial operational and legal barriers.