Trader consensus assigns a 98.2% implied probability to "No" on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization or amphibious buildup indicators amid routine gray-zone activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and warships near Penghu on April 27. Recent US intelligence in March assessed no firm commitment to a 2027 timeline, reinforced by Taiwan's advancing special defense budget on May 8 and US arms deals plus proposed military aid in late April. Diplomatic tensions surfaced in high-level US-China talks this week, with mutual warnings exchanged, yet deterrence via US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and economic interdependence prevail. Unforeseen escalations—such as a Taiwan Strait blockade, provocative visits, or sudden policy shifts—could still alter dynamics in the short resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$7,947,246 Wol.
$7,947,246 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Tak
$7,947,246 Wol.
$7,947,246 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.2% implied probability to "No" on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization or amphibious buildup indicators amid routine gray-zone activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and warships near Penghu on April 27. Recent US intelligence in March assessed no firm commitment to a 2027 timeline, reinforced by Taiwan's advancing special defense budget on May 8 and US arms deals plus proposed military aid in late April. Diplomatic tensions surfaced in high-level US-China talks this week, with mutual warnings exchanged, yet deterrence via US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and economic interdependence prevail. Unforeseen escalations—such as a Taiwan Strait blockade, provocative visits, or sudden policy shifts—could still alter dynamics in the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,947,246Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 98.2% implied probability to "No" on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization or amphibious buildup indicators amid routine gray-zone activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and warships near Penghu on April 27. Recent US intelligence in March assessed no firm commitment to a 2027 timeline, reinforced by Taiwan's advancing special defense budget on May 8 and US arms deals plus proposed military aid in late April. Diplomatic tensions surfaced in high-level US-China talks this week, with mutual warnings exchanged, yet deterrence via US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and economic interdependence prevail. Unforeseen escalations—such as a Taiwan Strait blockade, provocative visits, or sudden policy shifts—could still alter dynamics in the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$7,947,540Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 98.2% implied probability to "No" on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA mobilization or amphibious buildup indicators amid routine gray-zone activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen on May 1 and warships near Penghu on April 27. Recent US intelligence in March assessed no firm commitment to a 2027 timeline, reinforced by Taiwan's advancing special defense budget on May 8 and US arms deals plus proposed military aid in late April. Diplomatic tensions surfaced in high-level US-China talks this week, with mutual warnings exchanged, yet deterrence via US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and economic interdependence prevail. Unforeseen escalations—such as a Taiwan Strait blockade, provocative visits, or sudden policy shifts—could still alter dynamics in the short resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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