Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$356,802 Wol.
$356,802 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$356,802 Wol.
$356,802 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$356,802Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$356,802Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime frictions in the South China Sea have produced repeated vessel rammings, water-cannon incidents, and accusations of illegal landings and research activity near features such as Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal, yet none have crossed into sustained direct military combat. Both governments have maintained limited dialogue channels and signaled restraint, while Philippine infrastructure upgrades on Thitu Island and joint naval drills with the United States, Australia, and Japan have reinforced deterrence without triggering escalation. Traders therefore assign an 80.5 percent probability that these grey-zone tactics will continue without producing a full military clash before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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