Former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces an ongoing preliminary investigation at Spain’s National Court into alleged influence peddling, money laundering, and document forgery tied to the 2021 Plus Ultra airline bailout, along with a separate probe over jewelry for potential tax and smuggling offenses. The case remains in the instruction phase as of late 2026, with no oral trial opened, no convictions secured, and no restrictive measures imposed after his June court appearance. Spanish judicial timelines for complex corruption matters routinely extend several years and frequently produce dismissals, acquittals, or suspended sentences. Traders assign a 97% probability to “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date due to these procedural realities and the absence of imminent resolution. Late-stage evidentiary developments or accelerated proceedings could still shift the trajectory before year-end.