El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest Niño-3.4 index at +0.7°C and NOAA confirming an advisory status alongside forecasts for strengthening through winter. This development, layered on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin by elevating tropical ocean heat content and expected global surface anomalies. Recent monthly observations, including January 2026 at 1.12°C and 2025’s annual average near 1.19°C, provide a baseline, while model ensembles indicate modest additional lift from the evolving ENSO event during boreal summer. Uncertainties remain around exact June realization due to natural variability and model spread, with upcoming NOAA and IRI updates likely to refine trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Wol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 Wol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Wol.
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,583 Wol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,263 Wol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest Niño-3.4 index at +0.7°C and NOAA confirming an advisory status alongside forecasts for strengthening through winter. This development, layered on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin by elevating tropical ocean heat content and expected global surface anomalies. Recent monthly observations, including January 2026 at 1.12°C and 2025’s annual average near 1.19°C, provide a baseline, while model ensembles indicate modest additional lift from the evolving ENSO event during boreal summer. Uncertainties remain around exact June realization due to natural variability and model spread, with upcoming NOAA and IRI updates likely to refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,816Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest Niño-3.4 index at +0.7°C and NOAA confirming an advisory status alongside forecasts for strengthening through winter. This development, layered on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin by elevating tropical ocean heat content and expected global surface anomalies. Recent monthly observations, including January 2026 at 1.12°C and 2025’s annual average near 1.19°C, provide a baseline, while model ensembles indicate modest additional lift from the evolving ENSO event during boreal summer. Uncertainties remain around exact June realization due to natural variability and model spread, with upcoming NOAA and IRI updates likely to refine trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$8,816Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with the latest Niño-3.4 index at +0.7°C and NOAA confirming an advisory status alongside forecasts for strengthening through winter. This development, layered on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, supports the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin by elevating tropical ocean heat content and expected global surface anomalies. Recent monthly observations, including January 2026 at 1.12°C and 2025’s annual average near 1.19°C, provide a baseline, while model ensembles indicate modest additional lift from the evolving ENSO event during boreal summer. Uncertainties remain around exact June realization due to natural variability and model spread, with upcoming NOAA and IRI updates likely to refine trader assessments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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