El Niño conditions are emerging rapidly in the equatorial Pacific as of mid-June 2026, with NOAA assigning high probability for the event to strengthen through boreal summer and peak as a moderate-to-very-strong episode by winter. This oceanic warming typically elevates global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2 °C within months, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already pushed recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Model consensus from NMME and IRI shows narrow spread for June–August 2026, yet timing of peak atmospheric response, exact Niño-3.4 magnitude, and residual La Niña cooling introduce meaningful uncertainty around the 1.15–1.25 °C window. Traders appear to weigh these variables evenly, with upcoming July forecast updates and early observational data likely to sharpen resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 48%
1.20–1.24ºC 46%
<1.10ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
41%
1.10–1.14ºC
48%
1.15–1.19ºC
40%
1.20–1.24ºC
46%
1.25–1.29ºC
39%
>1.29ºC
40%
1.10–1.14ºC 48%
1.20–1.24ºC 46%
<1.10ºC 41%
1.15–1.19ºC 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$83 Wol.
41%
1.10–1.14ºC
$63 Wol.
48%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47 Wol.
40%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Wol.
46%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 Wol.
39%
>1.29ºC
$54 Wol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions are emerging rapidly in the equatorial Pacific as of mid-June 2026, with NOAA assigning high probability for the event to strengthen through boreal summer and peak as a moderate-to-very-strong episode by winter. This oceanic warming typically elevates global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2 °C within months, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already pushed recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Model consensus from NMME and IRI shows narrow spread for June–August 2026, yet timing of peak atmospheric response, exact Niño-3.4 magnitude, and residual La Niña cooling introduce meaningful uncertainty around the 1.15–1.25 °C window. Traders appear to weigh these variables evenly, with upcoming July forecast updates and early observational data likely to sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$377Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions are emerging rapidly in the equatorial Pacific as of mid-June 2026, with NOAA assigning high probability for the event to strengthen through boreal summer and peak as a moderate-to-very-strong episode by winter. This oceanic warming typically elevates global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2 °C within months, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already pushed recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Model consensus from NMME and IRI shows narrow spread for June–August 2026, yet timing of peak atmospheric response, exact Niño-3.4 magnitude, and residual La Niña cooling introduce meaningful uncertainty around the 1.15–1.25 °C window. Traders appear to weigh these variables evenly, with upcoming July forecast updates and early observational data likely to sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$377Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions are emerging rapidly in the equatorial Pacific as of mid-June 2026, with NOAA assigning high probability for the event to strengthen through boreal summer and peak as a moderate-to-very-strong episode by winter. This oceanic warming typically elevates global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2 °C within months, layering atop the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already pushed recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Model consensus from NMME and IRI shows narrow spread for June–August 2026, yet timing of peak atmospheric response, exact Niño-3.4 magnitude, and residual La Niña cooling introduce meaningful uncertainty around the 1.15–1.25 °C window. Traders appear to weigh these variables evenly, with upcoming July forecast updates and early observational data likely to sharpen resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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