The official @khamenei_ir account, now issuing statements under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei's March 2026 death, has maintained a low-volume pattern of zero to four posts per week during non-crisis intervals since the transition. Traders have priced the sub-five outcome at 84.5 percent because the resolution window from May 12 to 19 lacks scheduled diplomatic summits, major military escalations, or domestic political triggers that historically prompt bursts of official messaging on nuclear policy, the Strait of Hormuz, or regional security. Sporadic statements on these topics have appeared in recent weeks, yet they have not translated into sustained daily output, reinforcing the market's alignment with historical base rates for the account's activity absent acute confrontation.