Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 28?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 28?
22°C 40%
23°C 32%
21°C 9%
24°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 28, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
5%
21°C
9%
22°C
40%
23°C
32%
24°C
9%
25°C
4%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 40%
23°C 32%
21°C 9%
24°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 28, 2026
17°C or below
$241 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$62 Wol.
1%
19°C
$35 Wol.
3%
20°C
$78 Wol.
5%
21°C
$281 Wol.
9%
22°C
$163 Wol.
40%
23°C
$141 Wol.
32%
24°C
$10 Wol.
9%
25°C
$27 Wol.
4%
26°C
$132 Wol.
1%
27°C or higher
$481 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,651Data zakończenia
Jun 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,651Data zakończenia
Jun 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania