Recent local election losses have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, prompting cabinet resignations and positioning Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner for Labour leadership. Burnham’s approval to contest the Makerfield by-election, following an MP’s resignation to clear his path back to Parliament, has boosted his implied probability to 56.4 percent among traders. Polling among party members shows him well ahead of rivals such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, both of whom have signaled potential challenges after resolving personal and ministerial issues. The 15.5 percent share for no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over Starmer’s willingness to stand aside before any contest, while lower odds for other names track their narrower support bases and procedural hurdles ahead of a possible summer or autumn leadership vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAndy Burnham 56.4%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku 16%
Wes Streeting 9%
Angela Rayner 9%
$7,441,801 Wol.
$7,441,801 Wol.
Andy Burnham
56%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku
16%
Wes Streeting
9%
Angela Rayner
9%
Ed Miliband
7%
Al Carns
2%
Nigel Farage
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
John Healey
<1%
Andy Burnham 56.4%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku 16%
Wes Streeting 9%
Angela Rayner 9%
$7,441,801 Wol.
$7,441,801 Wol.
Andy Burnham
56%
Brak nowego premiera w 2026 roku
16%
Wes Streeting
9%
Angela Rayner
9%
Ed Miliband
7%
Al Carns
2%
Nigel Farage
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
John Healey
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent local election losses have intensified pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, prompting cabinet resignations and positioning Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner for Labour leadership. Burnham’s approval to contest the Makerfield by-election, following an MP’s resignation to clear his path back to Parliament, has boosted his implied probability to 56.4 percent among traders. Polling among party members shows him well ahead of rivals such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, both of whom have signaled potential challenges after resolving personal and ministerial issues. The 15.5 percent share for no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over Starmer’s willingness to stand aside before any contest, while lower odds for other names track their narrower support bases and procedural hurdles ahead of a possible summer or autumn leadership vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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