US bank failures have already occurred twice in 2026, both small institutions with under $300 million in assets, driven by concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses amid still-restrictive rates. Trader sentiment for another failure by year-end sits near even odds because the broader system shows strong capitalization, with average CET1 ratios above 14 percent, record deposit levels near $19.5 trillion, and healthy first-quarter returns on equity. Macro conditions feature moderating GDP growth around 1.9 percent and unemployment drifting toward 4.6 percent, while elevated CRE exposures remain a localized risk for smaller lenders. Key upcoming catalysts include additional economic releases, Federal Reserve communications on policy, and CRE maturity waves that could shift funding pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS bank failure by December 31, 2026?
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US bank failures have already occurred twice in 2026, both small institutions with under $300 million in assets, driven by concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses amid still-restrictive rates. Trader sentiment for another failure by year-end sits near even odds because the broader system shows strong capitalization, with average CET1 ratios above 14 percent, record deposit levels near $19.5 trillion, and healthy first-quarter returns on equity. Macro conditions feature moderating GDP growth around 1.9 percent and unemployment drifting toward 4.6 percent, while elevated CRE exposures remain a localized risk for smaller lenders. Key upcoming catalysts include additional economic releases, Federal Reserve communications on policy, and CRE maturity waves that could shift funding pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US bank failures have already occurred twice in 2026, both small institutions with under $300 million in assets, driven by concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses amid still-restrictive rates. Trader sentiment for another failure by year-end sits near even odds because the broader system shows strong capitalization, with average CET1 ratios above 14 percent, record deposit levels near $19.5 trillion, and healthy first-quarter returns on equity. Macro conditions feature moderating GDP growth around 1.9 percent and unemployment drifting toward 4.6 percent, while elevated CRE exposures remain a localized risk for smaller lenders. Key upcoming catalysts include additional economic releases, Federal Reserve communications on policy, and CRE maturity waves that could shift funding pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US bank failures have already occurred twice in 2026, both small institutions with under $300 million in assets, driven by concentrated commercial real estate and C&I loan losses amid still-restrictive rates. Trader sentiment for another failure by year-end sits near even odds because the broader system shows strong capitalization, with average CET1 ratios above 14 percent, record deposit levels near $19.5 trillion, and healthy first-quarter returns on equity. Macro conditions feature moderating GDP growth around 1.9 percent and unemployment drifting toward 4.6 percent, while elevated CRE exposures remain a localized risk for smaller lenders. Key upcoming catalysts include additional economic releases, Federal Reserve communications on policy, and CRE maturity waves that could shift funding pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania