The 63% market-implied probability favoring no additional FDIC-insured U.S. bank failure by June 30 reflects the sector’s demonstrated resilience following the May 1 closure of Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, the second such event of 2026. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels, ample liquid assets, and uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks, underscoring contained funding and credit risks across institutions. With only weeks remaining until resolution and no acute macroeconomic shocks or widespread liquidity strains evident in recent data, trader consensus prices in the low historical base rate of failures during stable periods, tempered by the possibility of isolated smaller-bank resolutions before quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The 63% market-implied probability favoring no additional FDIC-insured U.S. bank failure by June 30 reflects the sector’s demonstrated resilience following the May 1 closure of Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, the second such event of 2026. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels, ample liquid assets, and uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks, underscoring contained funding and credit risks across institutions. With only weeks remaining until resolution and no acute macroeconomic shocks or widespread liquidity strains evident in recent data, trader consensus prices in the low historical base rate of failures during stable periods, tempered by the possibility of isolated smaller-bank resolutions before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,293Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The 63% market-implied probability favoring no additional FDIC-insured U.S. bank failure by June 30 reflects the sector’s demonstrated resilience following the May 1 closure of Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, the second such event of 2026. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels, ample liquid assets, and uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks, underscoring contained funding and credit risks across institutions. With only weeks remaining until resolution and no acute macroeconomic shocks or widespread liquidity strains evident in recent data, trader consensus prices in the low historical base rate of failures during stable periods, tempered by the possibility of isolated smaller-bank resolutions before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Wolumen
$7,293Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 63% market-implied probability favoring no additional FDIC-insured U.S. bank failure by June 30 reflects the sector’s demonstrated resilience following the May 1 closure of Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia, the second such event of 2026. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels, ample liquid assets, and uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks, underscoring contained funding and credit risks across institutions. With only weeks remaining until resolution and no acute macroeconomic shocks or widespread liquidity strains evident in recent data, trader consensus prices in the low historical base rate of failures during stable periods, tempered by the possibility of isolated smaller-bank resolutions before quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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