Recent declines in crude oil prices, driven by diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran easing supply disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, have lowered gasoline futures and supported the 82.5% market-implied probability for the national average regular gas price finishing below $4.10 on November 5. Weekly EIA and AAA readings show the average slipping to $4.12–$4.15 after drops exceeding 12 cents, aided by the seasonal shift to winter-blend fuel, waning refinery maintenance, and softer demand. Recovering U.S. gasoline inventories have further eased pressure, though persistent geopolitical volatility could still influence the final settlement.