Persistent security risks, including recent Iranian attacks on vessels, uncleared mines, and competing Iranian- and U.S.-controlled transit regimes, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly 3–7% of pre-crisis levels as of early October 2026. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at approximately 15 times peacetime baselines, while sanctions exposure and permitting requirements deter mainstream operators, sustaining the market-implied 81.5% probability of no return to normal volumes this year. Partial oil flows via shuttle transfers and bypass pipelines have supported some export recovery to around 10–16 million barrels per day, yet these fall short of the historical 20 million barrel average and do not constitute normalized lane usage. Diplomatic conditions outlined by Iran and the absence of verified de-escalation milestones reinforce trader consensus that full restoration is unlikely before 2027.