WTI crude oil prices have eased to around $88.50 per barrel as of mid-November 2026 after settling at $88.56 on November 13, reflecting a second straight weekly decline of about 2.5 percent. The primary driver is the International Energy Agency’s November 13 report forecasting a global supply surplus in Q4 2026—the first since the Iran-related disruptions began—as Gulf exports recover faster than demand, with October supply rising 2.3 million barrels per day to 105.4 million. This shift outweighed lingering Strait of Hormuz risks and shipping attacks. Supporting factors include an unexpected 4.66-million-barrel U.S. crude inventory build for the week ending November 6, softer U.S. refined-product demand, and rising OPEC+ output, particularly Saudi Arabia’s increase to 10.56 million barrels per day. The IEA now projects global demand falling 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.3 million, with the next OPEC+ meeting a key near-term catalyst for trader sentiment.