Trader consensus around the $4.2800-4.2899 band for the October 26 national average reflects stabilization in recent AAA and EIA retail reports near $4.28–$4.29 per gallon, driven by the seasonal transition to lower-cost winter-blend gasoline and select state tax suspensions that have eased pump prices despite WTI crude holding above $100 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East supply risks. Elevated refining margins and tight inventories have limited further downside, anchoring market-implied odds near 96%. A sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpectedly strong weekly demand data could push prices higher, while accelerated inventory builds or faster seasonal relief might test the lower edge of the range.