Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1 57%
August 31–September 6 44%
September 7–September 13 44%
September 14–September 20 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
39%
August 31–September 6
44%
September 7–September 13
44%
September 14–September 20
44%
September 21–September 27
44%
September 28–October 4
41%
October 5–October 11
38%
October 12–October 18
41%
October 19–October 25
41%
October 26–November 1
41%
No release by November 1
57%
No release by November 1 57%
August 31–September 6 44%
September 7–September 13 44%
September 14–September 20 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
$0 Wol.
39%
August 31–September 6
$0 Wol.
44%
September 7–September 13
$0 Wol.
44%
September 14–September 20
$0 Wol.
44%
September 21–September 27
$0 Wol.
44%
September 28–October 4
$0 Wol.
41%
October 5–October 11
$0 Wol.
38%
October 12–October 18
$0 Wol.
41%
October 19–October 25
$0 Wol.
41%
October 26–November 1
$0 Wol.
41%
No release by November 1
$31 Wol.
57%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$31Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$31Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Gemini Pro release market reflects persistent delays for Google's flagship model, with the 57.5% implied probability on no launch by November 1 driven by recent confirmation that Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing after missing its June target. July's rollout of lighter variants like Gemini 3.5 Flash and Flash-Lite highlighted internal performance shortfalls that postponed the Pro upgrade, last updated in February with the 3.1 version. Training has begun on Gemini 4, signaling a longer development cycle, while competitive pressure from rivals' frontier releases adds caution. Key upcoming catalysts include potential I/O or earnings updates that could clarify timelines or resolve the closely contested September windows around 37-42%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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