Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 86%
Google 7.5%
Meta 7.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,793 Wol.
$21,793 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
8%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 7.5%
Meta 7.1%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,793 Wol.
$21,793 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$13,184 Wol.
86%
$554 Wol.
8%
Meta
$493 Wol.
7%
OpenAI
$871 Wol.
3%
Moonshot
$449 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$418 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$458 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$258 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$394 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$420 Wol.
1%
Thinky
$387 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$378 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$382 Wol.
1%
Tencent
$378 Wol.
1%
Microsoft
$375 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$379 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$339 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$382 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$514 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$399 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$383 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,793Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$21,793Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchLM with an 84.8 BenchAlign score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at 82.9 and other Claude variants, reflecting superior performance across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge, reinforced by the September 2026 release of Fable 5.1 and Opus 5, drives the 85% market-implied probability that an Anthropic model holds the #1 spot by end of October under style-controlled evaluation. OpenAI, Google, and Meta trail due to lower benchmark results and no recent frontier breakthroughs, while lower-probability Chinese labs face capability gaps. With roughly six weeks until resolution and limited expected releases, trader consensus favors Anthropic's sustained positioning unless a major competitor launch shifts the ranking.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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