Traders see a tight race for the leading Text Arena Math model by end of December, with Anthropic holding a narrow 51.5% edge amid many firms clustered near even odds. This reflects Anthropic's consistent strength in math-focused leaderboards and reasoning benchmarks, where its Claude Opus and related variants have posted competitive scores alongside Google's Gemini models that currently top some arena rankings. Moonshot's modest position aligns with its solid but narrower edge in specific evaluations, while lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal perceived gaps in sustained math performance. Key catalysts ahead include new model releases, arena voting shifts, and any verified gains on advanced benchmarks that could reshape the December outcome.