Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKtóra firma ma najlepszy model sztucznej inteligencji pod koniec czerwca? (Kontrola stylu włączona)
Która firma ma najlepszy model sztucznej inteligencji pod koniec czerwca? (Kontrola stylu włączona)
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 Wol.
$1,455,219 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 Wol.
$1,455,219 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$29,972 Wol.
67%
$18,324 Wol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,298 Wol.
6%
xAI
$14,928 Wol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,475 Wol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,847 Wol.
1%
Meta
$8,119 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,328 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$270,668 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,313 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,620 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,783 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,585 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,455,219Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Wolumen
$1,455,219Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania