The prediction market for the next departure from the Trump Cabinet shows a tight contest among several officials, with probabilities clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range. This reflects the early months of the administration, during which cabinet members including Tulsi Gabbard, Howard Lutnick, and Susie Wiles manage confirmation follow-through, agency leadership transitions, and alignment with core priorities such as trade policy, national security appointments, and regulatory reviews. No single high-profile resignation, ethics issue, or legislative clash has emerged in recent weeks to separate the field, leaving traders to balance historical cabinet turnover rates against current signals of stability. Upcoming congressional sessions and budget deadlines could introduce fresh pressures capable of shifting the consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTulsi Gabbard 38%
Susie Wiles 25.9%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Wol.
$11,675 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Susie Wiles
26%
Howard Lutnick
23%
Scott Bessent
14%
None before 2027
27%
Marco Rubio
26%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
24%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Susie Wiles 25.9%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Wol.
$11,675 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Wol.
38%
Susie Wiles
$326 Wol.
26%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Wol.
23%
Scott Bessent
$233 Wol.
14%
None before 2027
$223 Wol.
27%
Marco Rubio
$294 Wol.
26%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Wol.
4%
Chris Wright
$390 Wol.
24%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Wol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Wol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 Wol.
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Wol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Wol.
2%
Scott Turner
$352 Wol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Wol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Wol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Wol.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Wol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Wol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Wol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Wol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The prediction market for the next departure from the Trump Cabinet shows a tight contest among several officials, with probabilities clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range. This reflects the early months of the administration, during which cabinet members including Tulsi Gabbard, Howard Lutnick, and Susie Wiles manage confirmation follow-through, agency leadership transitions, and alignment with core priorities such as trade policy, national security appointments, and regulatory reviews. No single high-profile resignation, ethics issue, or legislative clash has emerged in recent weeks to separate the field, leaving traders to balance historical cabinet turnover rates against current signals of stability. Upcoming congressional sessions and budget deadlines could introduce fresh pressures capable of shifting the consensus.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,675Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The prediction market for the next departure from the Trump Cabinet shows a tight contest among several officials, with probabilities clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range. This reflects the early months of the administration, during which cabinet members including Tulsi Gabbard, Howard Lutnick, and Susie Wiles manage confirmation follow-through, agency leadership transitions, and alignment with core priorities such as trade policy, national security appointments, and regulatory reviews. No single high-profile resignation, ethics issue, or legislative clash has emerged in recent weeks to separate the field, leaving traders to balance historical cabinet turnover rates against current signals of stability. Upcoming congressional sessions and budget deadlines could introduce fresh pressures capable of shifting the consensus.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Wolumen
$11,675Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The prediction market for the next departure from the Trump Cabinet shows a tight contest among several officials, with probabilities clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range. This reflects the early months of the administration, during which cabinet members including Tulsi Gabbard, Howard Lutnick, and Susie Wiles manage confirmation follow-through, agency leadership transitions, and alignment with core priorities such as trade policy, national security appointments, and regulatory reviews. No single high-profile resignation, ethics issue, or legislative clash has emerged in recent weeks to separate the field, leaving traders to balance historical cabinet turnover rates against current signals of stability. Upcoming congressional sessions and budget deadlines could introduce fresh pressures capable of shifting the consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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