Recent high-end auction results, including the $181 million Jackson Pollock sale in May 2026, have already cleared the $150 million threshold, yet trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% implied probability because multiple nine-figure hammer prices remain historically rare within a single calendar year. Supply of fresh trophy works from major estates has thinned after 2025’s Klimt record and spring marquee events, while buyer caution persists amid economic volatility and softer price-to-estimate ratios at the top end. The fall New York evening sales at Christie’s and Sotheby’s stand as the main remaining catalyst; without another blockbuster consignment, the market-implied odds are likely to hold.