**The high implied probability on "No" for PVQ winning a seat stems from the Green Party of Quebec's persistently marginal standing ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election.** Recent polling aggregates and seat models from firms such as 338Canada and Qc125 project seats only for the PQ, PLQ, CAQ, PCQ, and QS, with no allocation for PVQ. August 2026 surveys show the main parties capturing the bulk of support (PQ around 29%, CAQ 24-25%, PLQ 22%, PCQ 15-16%, QS 8-10%), while PVQ remains below measurable thresholds in public releases despite a February 2026 internal poll claiming 4% overall and higher youth support. Under Quebec's first-past-the-post system, PVQ's historical results—peaking at 3.85% in 2007 and falling to 0.76% in 2022 with zero seats—combined with limited candidate recruitment and no evident regional strongholds, make a breakthrough improbable. The election campaign, launched after the writs on August 27, has focused volatility among the five larger parties, leaving little room for smaller entrants to consolidate enough votes in any riding. Traders appear to view these structural and polling realities as decisive barriers absent a major late shift.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano42% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 5, 2026
42% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The high implied probability on "No" for PVQ winning a seat stems from the Green Party of Quebec's persistently marginal standing ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election.** Recent polling aggregates and seat models from firms such as 338Canada and Qc125 project seats only for the PQ, PLQ, CAQ, PCQ, and QS, with no allocation for PVQ. August 2026 surveys show the main parties capturing the bulk of support (PQ around 29%, CAQ 24-25%, PLQ 22%, PCQ 15-16%, QS 8-10%), while PVQ remains below measurable thresholds in public releases despite a February 2026 internal poll claiming 4% overall and higher youth support.
Under Quebec's first-past-the-post system, PVQ's historical results—peaking at 3.85% in 2007 and falling to 0.76% in 2022 with zero seats—combined with limited candidate recruitment and no evident regional strongholds, make a breakthrough improbable. The election campaign, launched after the writs on August 27, has focused volatility among the five larger parties, leaving little room for smaller entrants to consolidate enough votes in any riding. Traders appear to view these structural and polling realities as decisive barriers absent a major late shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$22Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The high implied probability on "No" for PVQ winning a seat stems from the Green Party of Quebec's persistently marginal standing ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election.** Recent polling aggregates and seat models from firms such as 338Canada and Qc125 project seats only for the PQ, PLQ, CAQ, PCQ, and QS, with no allocation for PVQ. August 2026 surveys show the main parties capturing the bulk of support (PQ around 29%, CAQ 24-25%, PLQ 22%, PCQ 15-16%, QS 8-10%), while PVQ remains below measurable thresholds in public releases despite a February 2026 internal poll claiming 4% overall and higher youth support.
Under Quebec's first-past-the-post system, PVQ's historical results—peaking at 3.85% in 2007 and falling to 0.76% in 2022 with zero seats—combined with limited candidate recruitment and no evident regional strongholds, make a breakthrough improbable. The election campaign, launched after the writs on August 27, has focused volatility among the five larger parties, leaving little room for smaller entrants to consolidate enough votes in any riding. Traders appear to view these structural and polling realities as decisive barriers absent a major late shift.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Wolumen
$22Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**The high implied probability on "No" for PVQ winning a seat stems from the Green Party of Quebec's persistently marginal standing ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election.** Recent polling aggregates and seat models from firms such as 338Canada and Qc125 project seats only for the PQ, PLQ, CAQ, PCQ, and QS, with no allocation for PVQ. August 2026 surveys show the main parties capturing the bulk of support (PQ around 29%, CAQ 24-25%, PLQ 22%, PCQ 15-16%, QS 8-10%), while PVQ remains below measurable thresholds in public releases despite a February 2026 internal poll claiming 4% overall and higher youth support. Under Quebec's first-past-the-post system, PVQ's historical results—peaking at 3.85% in 2007 and falling to 0.76% in 2022 with zero seats—combined with limited candidate recruitment and no evident regional strongholds, make a breakthrough improbable. The election campaign, launched after the writs on August 27, has focused volatility among the five larger parties, leaving little room for smaller entrants to consolidate enough votes in any riding. Traders appear to view these structural and polling realities as decisive barriers absent a major late shift.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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