**Recent polling and seat projections position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for a plurality but leave substantial uncertainty around its final seat count ahead of the October 5 election.** Aggregators place PQ support near 29 percent, ahead of the CAQ, Liberals, and others, yet models produce averages of roughly 46–52 seats with wide ranges (e.g., 35–73) driven by many close contests against the incumbent CAQ and variable vote efficiency in francophone ridings. Recent surveys show PQ numbers holding steady while CAQ support slips and Liberals rebound slightly, increasing the share of marginal seats. This spread places the largest share of simulated outcomes below 50 seats, aligning with the market’s leading probability on that bucket.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<50 42%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.6%
$16,695 Wol.
$16,695 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
42%
50-54
14%
55-59
11%
60-64
12%
65-69
7%
70-74
6%
75-79
5%
80+
4%
<50 42%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.6%
$16,695 Wol.
$16,695 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$5,128 Wol.
42%
50-54
$1,395 Wol.
14%
55-59
$852 Wol.
11%
60-64
$993 Wol.
12%
65-69
$3,282 Wol.
7%
70-74
$2,651 Wol.
6%
75-79
$1,290 Wol.
5%
80+
$1,104 Wol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for a plurality but leave substantial uncertainty around its final seat count ahead of the October 5 election.** Aggregators place PQ support near 29 percent, ahead of the CAQ, Liberals, and others, yet models produce averages of roughly 46–52 seats with wide ranges (e.g., 35–73) driven by many close contests against the incumbent CAQ and variable vote efficiency in francophone ridings. Recent surveys show PQ numbers holding steady while CAQ support slips and Liberals rebound slightly, increasing the share of marginal seats. This spread places the largest share of simulated outcomes below 50 seats, aligning with the market’s leading probability on that bucket.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$16,695Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for a plurality but leave substantial uncertainty around its final seat count ahead of the October 5 election.** Aggregators place PQ support near 29 percent, ahead of the CAQ, Liberals, and others, yet models produce averages of roughly 46–52 seats with wide ranges (e.g., 35–73) driven by many close contests against the incumbent CAQ and variable vote efficiency in francophone ridings. Recent surveys show PQ numbers holding steady while CAQ support slips and Liberals rebound slightly, increasing the share of marginal seats. This spread places the largest share of simulated outcomes below 50 seats, aligning with the market’s leading probability on that bucket.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Wolumen
$16,695Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and seat projections position the Parti Québécois (PQ) for a plurality but leave substantial uncertainty around its final seat count ahead of the October 5 election.** Aggregators place PQ support near 29 percent, ahead of the CAQ, Liberals, and others, yet models produce averages of roughly 46–52 seats with wide ranges (e.g., 35–73) driven by many close contests against the incumbent CAQ and variable vote efficiency in francophone ridings. Recent surveys show PQ numbers holding steady while CAQ support slips and Liberals rebound slightly, increasing the share of marginal seats. This spread places the largest share of simulated outcomes below 50 seats, aligning with the market’s leading probability on that bucket.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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