The January 2026 U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro via targeted airstrikes and special forces raid established leverage over Venezuela’s interim government without sustained territorial occupation or broader ground campaign. Subsequent reopening of diplomatic ties, lifting of oil sanctions, and limited U.S. personnel support for June earthquake relief have reinforced a stabilization phase. As of early August 2026, U.S.-backed national dialogue talks between the interim authorities and opposition prioritize reconciliation over escalation, keeping trader-implied probabilities for any qualifying military offensive to establish control low through remaining deadlines. No major new deployments or congressional war authorizations have emerged in recent weeks.