The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges marked the primary recent catalyst shaping trader assessments of whether a broader invasion will occur by the market's resolution date. U.S. forces conducted targeted airstrikes and a special operations raid in Caracas but withdrew without establishing occupation or ground control, allowing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume the interim presidency. Subsequent U.S. actions have included lifting major oil sanctions, authorizing direct petroleum sales, and reopening diplomatic relations by March 2026. These steps, alongside Maduro's ongoing U.S. trial and Venezuela's national amnesty measures, have reduced immediate escalation pressures while leaving open the possibility of further interventions tied to drug interdiction or regional stability.