Recent major tax legislation via the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended TCJA business provisions such as 100% bonus depreciation and R&D expensing while retaining the 21% corporate rate, delivering substantial relief without a headline rate reduction below that threshold. In 2026, an election-year environment has narrowed the legislative window, with Republican priorities shifting toward implementation of existing law, tariff policy, and targeted bipartisan extenders rather than new reconciliation efforts on corporate rates. No active congressional push for further rate cuts has emerged, and historical patterns show major tax overhauls rarely occur in midterms without unified momentum. Traders assign an 89% probability to no reduction before 2027, reflecting these timing and agenda constraints.