President Trump's 2025 proposal for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend has not advanced to legislation or implementation by mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 deadline with limited runway. Analyses indicate projected tariff revenue falls short of the roughly $450 billion cost for an income-limited one-time payment, while parts of the broader tariff framework faced Supreme Court limits earlier in the year. Any such program would require congressional passage rather than unilateral executive action, and no bill has moved forward amid competing fiscal priorities. Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting these structural and procedural barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano13% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
13% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's 2025 proposal for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend has not advanced to legislation or implementation by mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 deadline with limited runway. Analyses indicate projected tariff revenue falls short of the roughly $450 billion cost for an income-limited one-time payment, while parts of the broader tariff framework faced Supreme Court limits earlier in the year. Any such program would require congressional passage rather than unilateral executive action, and no bill has moved forward amid competing fiscal priorities. Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,883Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's 2025 proposal for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend has not advanced to legislation or implementation by mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 deadline with limited runway. Analyses indicate projected tariff revenue falls short of the roughly $450 billion cost for an income-limited one-time payment, while parts of the broader tariff framework faced Supreme Court limits earlier in the year. Any such program would require congressional passage rather than unilateral executive action, and no bill has moved forward amid competing fiscal priorities. Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,883Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's 2025 proposal for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend has not advanced to legislation or implementation by mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 deadline with limited runway. Analyses indicate projected tariff revenue falls short of the roughly $450 billion cost for an income-limited one-time payment, while parts of the broader tariff framework faced Supreme Court limits earlier in the year. Any such program would require congressional passage rather than unilateral executive action, and no bill has moved forward amid competing fiscal priorities. Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting these structural and procedural barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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