**Trader consensus on a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate increase at the December 2026 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures and the central bank’s gradual normalization path following its September 18 hike to 1.25%.** Core CPI remains near or above the 2% target amid energy cost spikes tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen, while wage growth supports the wage-price cycle. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive action to stabilize underlying inflation and left open the possibility of measured further tightening, though the pace stays data-dependent. Government caution under Prime Minister Takaichi and the recent 7-2 vote introduce modest restraint, keeping a December move as the baseline expectation while leaving room for no change if incoming CPI or labor data soften. Markets continue to price this outcome at 70.5% versus 29.5% for holding steady.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento de 25 pontos-base 71%
Nenhuma alteração 29%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos base <1%
NOVO
NOVO
17 dez 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
1%
Redução de 25 pontos base
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
29%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
71%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 71%
Nenhuma alteração 29%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos base <1%
NOVO
NOVO
17 dez 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos base
$347 Vol.
1%
Redução de 25 pontos base
$317 Vol.
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
$1,707 Vol.
29%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$2,429 Vol.
71%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$478 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus on a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate increase at the December 2026 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures and the central bank’s gradual normalization path following its September 18 hike to 1.25%.** Core CPI remains near or above the 2% target amid energy cost spikes tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen, while wage growth supports the wage-price cycle. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive action to stabilize underlying inflation and left open the possibility of measured further tightening, though the pace stays data-dependent. Government caution under Prime Minister Takaichi and the recent 7-2 vote introduce modest restraint, keeping a December move as the baseline expectation while leaving room for no change if incoming CPI or labor data soften. Markets continue to price this outcome at 70.5% versus 29.5% for holding steady.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ET
Volume
$5,274Data de Término
18 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader consensus on a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate increase at the December 2026 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures and the central bank’s gradual normalization path following its September 18 hike to 1.25%.** Core CPI remains near or above the 2% target amid energy cost spikes tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen, while wage growth supports the wage-price cycle. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive action to stabilize underlying inflation and left open the possibility of measured further tightening, though the pace stays data-dependent. Government caution under Prime Minister Takaichi and the recent 7-2 vote introduce modest restraint, keeping a December move as the baseline expectation while leaving room for no change if incoming CPI or labor data soften. Markets continue to price this outcome at 70.5% versus 29.5% for holding steady.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$5,274Data de Término
18 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate increase at the December 2026 meeting reflects persistent inflation pressures and the central bank’s gradual normalization path following its September 18 hike to 1.25%.** Core CPI remains near or above the 2% target amid energy cost spikes tied to Middle East developments and a weaker yen, while wage growth supports the wage-price cycle. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive action to stabilize underlying inflation and left open the possibility of measured further tightening, though the pace stays data-dependent. Government caution under Prime Minister Takaichi and the recent 7-2 vote introduce modest restraint, keeping a December move as the baseline expectation while leaving room for no change if incoming CPI or labor data soften. Markets continue to price this outcome at 70.5% versus 29.5% for holding steady.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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