Recent inflation data showing underlying price growth accelerating to 5–6% annualized in July–August, alongside elevated inflation expectations and a temporary reduction in fuel production capacity, prompted the Bank of Russia to pause easing at its September 11 meeting and hold the key rate at 14%. Traders see these factors, combined with more expansionary fiscal policy parameters expected by late September, as the main reasons the December outcome remains split nearly evenly between no change and a 25 basis point cut. Incoming monthly inflation readings, confirmation of whether price pressures prove transitory, and any signals on aggregate demand or external risks will determine whether probabilities shift toward further easing or a prolonged hold.