Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's decisive June 2026 primary win, where he secured over 54 percent against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers, reinforces the district's established partisan baseline in California's top-two system. With the November general election approaching, trader pricing across margin buckets reflects broad consensus on a comfortable Democratic victory driven by voter registration patterns and historical turnout in the region, while Recile's campaign focuses on veterans' issues and spending restraint without shifting the underlying dynamics. The closely aligned prices for leading outcomes highlight uncertainty over the precise victory margin rather than the winner itself, with separation likely hinging on late-cycle factors such as national midterm momentum, candidate spending in the final weeks, or unexpected shifts in early and absentee ballot trends within key counties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCA-08 Margem de Vitória na Eleição da Casa
CA-08 Margem de Vitória na Eleição da Casa
Democrata 50-55% 43.3%
Democrata 25-30% 42.4%
Democrata 55%+ 42.3%
Democrata 30-35% 42.1%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 55%+
42%
Democrata 50-55%
43%
Democrata 45-50%
35%
Democrata 40-45%
34%
Democrata 35-40%
24%
Democrata 30-35%
42%
Democrata 25-30%
42%
Democrata 15-25%
41%
Democrata 0-15%
37%
Vitória dos Republicanos
38%
Democrata 50-55% 43.3%
Democrata 25-30% 42.4%
Democrata 55%+ 42.3%
Democrata 30-35% 42.1%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 55%+
$334 Vol.
42%
Democrata 50-55%
$304 Vol.
43%
Democrata 45-50%
$304 Vol.
35%
Democrata 40-45%
$304 Vol.
34%
Democrata 35-40%
$304 Vol.
24%
Democrata 30-35%
$334 Vol.
42%
Democrata 25-30%
$334 Vol.
42%
Democrata 15-25%
$304 Vol.
41%
Democrata 0-15%
$384 Vol.
37%
Vitória dos Republicanos
$304 Vol.
38%
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's decisive June 2026 primary win, where he secured over 54 percent against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers, reinforces the district's established partisan baseline in California's top-two system. With the November general election approaching, trader pricing across margin buckets reflects broad consensus on a comfortable Democratic victory driven by voter registration patterns and historical turnout in the region, while Recile's campaign focuses on veterans' issues and spending restraint without shifting the underlying dynamics. The closely aligned prices for leading outcomes highlight uncertainty over the precise victory margin rather than the winner itself, with separation likely hinging on late-cycle factors such as national midterm momentum, candidate spending in the final weeks, or unexpected shifts in early and absentee ballot trends within key counties.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$3,211Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's decisive June 2026 primary win, where he secured over 54 percent against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers, reinforces the district's established partisan baseline in California's top-two system. With the November general election approaching, trader pricing across margin buckets reflects broad consensus on a comfortable Democratic victory driven by voter registration patterns and historical turnout in the region, while Recile's campaign focuses on veterans' issues and spending restraint without shifting the underlying dynamics. The closely aligned prices for leading outcomes highlight uncertainty over the precise victory margin rather than the winner itself, with separation likely hinging on late-cycle factors such as national midterm momentum, candidate spending in the final weeks, or unexpected shifts in early and absentee ballot trends within key counties.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,211Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's decisive June 2026 primary win, where he secured over 54 percent against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers, reinforces the district's established partisan baseline in California's top-two system. With the November general election approaching, trader pricing across margin buckets reflects broad consensus on a comfortable Democratic victory driven by voter registration patterns and historical turnout in the region, while Recile's campaign focuses on veterans' issues and spending restraint without shifting the underlying dynamics. The closely aligned prices for leading outcomes highlight uncertainty over the precise victory margin rather than the winner itself, with separation likely hinging on late-cycle factors such as national midterm momentum, candidate spending in the final weeks, or unexpected shifts in early and absentee ballot trends within key counties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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