Jacqui Irwin's primary victory and the post-redistricting map have anchored trader views on a Democratic hold in California's 26th District, yet markets price multiple margin brackets and a Republican win near 40% each because the open seat in Ventura and Los Angeles counties remains sensitive to turnout and national conditions. Irwin, a state assembly member with local name recognition, faces Sam Gallucci in the November general; the district's suburban and agricultural mix plus California's top-two system produced a clear primary split, but forecasts still project double-digit Democratic margins. Limited polling, fundraising differentials, and the absence of major late-cycle events keep implied probabilities compressed across outcomes, with any shift in voter enthusiasm or campaign spending likely to separate the leading scenarios before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDemocrata 15-20% 43%
Democrata 35%+ 42%
Democrata 25-30% 42%
Democrata 20-25% 42%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 35%+
42%
Democrata 30-35%
41%
Democrata 25-30%
42%
Democrata 20-25%
42%
Democrata 15-20%
43%
Democrata 10-15%
41%
Democrata 5-10%
41%
Democrata 0-5%
40%
Vitória Republicana
42%
Democrata 15-20% 43%
Democrata 35%+ 42%
Democrata 25-30% 42%
Democrata 20-25% 42%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 35%+
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrata 30-35%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 25-30%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrata 20-25%
$0 Vol.
42%
Democrata 15-20%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democrata 10-15%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 5-10%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrata 0-5%
$0 Vol.
40%
Vitória Republicana
$0 Vol.
42%
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacqui Irwin's primary victory and the post-redistricting map have anchored trader views on a Democratic hold in California's 26th District, yet markets price multiple margin brackets and a Republican win near 40% each because the open seat in Ventura and Los Angeles counties remains sensitive to turnout and national conditions. Irwin, a state assembly member with local name recognition, faces Sam Gallucci in the November general; the district's suburban and agricultural mix plus California's top-two system produced a clear primary split, but forecasts still project double-digit Democratic margins. Limited polling, fundraising differentials, and the absence of major late-cycle events keep implied probabilities compressed across outcomes, with any shift in voter enthusiasm or campaign spending likely to separate the leading scenarios before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jacqui Irwin's primary victory and the post-redistricting map have anchored trader views on a Democratic hold in California's 26th District, yet markets price multiple margin brackets and a Republican win near 40% each because the open seat in Ventura and Los Angeles counties remains sensitive to turnout and national conditions. Irwin, a state assembly member with local name recognition, faces Sam Gallucci in the November general; the district's suburban and agricultural mix plus California's top-two system produced a clear primary split, but forecasts still project double-digit Democratic margins. Limited polling, fundraising differentials, and the absence of major late-cycle events keep implied probabilities compressed across outcomes, with any shift in voter enthusiasm or campaign spending likely to separate the leading scenarios before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-26 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-26 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jacqui Irwin's primary victory and the post-redistricting map have anchored trader views on a Democratic hold in California's 26th District, yet markets price multiple margin brackets and a Republican win near 40% each because the open seat in Ventura and Los Angeles counties remains sensitive to turnout and national conditions. Irwin, a state assembly member with local name recognition, faces Sam Gallucci in the November general; the district's suburban and agricultural mix plus California's top-two system produced a clear primary split, but forecasts still project double-digit Democratic margins. Limited polling, fundraising differentials, and the absence of major late-cycle events keep implied probabilities compressed across outcomes, with any shift in voter enthusiasm or campaign spending likely to separate the leading scenarios before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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