Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with an endorsement from President Trump, holds a strong position in Missouri’s 5th District after state lawmakers redrew boundaries last year to favor the GOP. The revised map incorporates more rural, conservative territory outside Kansas City, shifting the district to a Trump +58 lean and creating structural barriers for incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. Cleaver advanced unopposed in his primary but faces a path-to-victory reliant on urban turnout in a district where Republican candidates now hold a decisive edge in recent statewide voting patterns. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability, reflecting the redistricting impact and limited remaining time before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$10,750 Vol.
$10,750 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Republican Party
$8,060 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,690 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with an endorsement from President Trump, holds a strong position in Missouri’s 5th District after state lawmakers redrew boundaries last year to favor the GOP. The revised map incorporates more rural, conservative territory outside Kansas City, shifting the district to a Trump +58 lean and creating structural barriers for incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. Cleaver advanced unopposed in his primary but faces a path-to-victory reliant on urban turnout in a district where Republican candidates now hold a decisive edge in recent statewide voting patterns. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability, reflecting the redistricting impact and limited remaining time before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,750Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with an endorsement from President Trump, holds a strong position in Missouri’s 5th District after state lawmakers redrew boundaries last year to favor the GOP. The revised map incorporates more rural, conservative territory outside Kansas City, shifting the district to a Trump +58 lean and creating structural barriers for incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. Cleaver advanced unopposed in his primary but faces a path-to-victory reliant on urban turnout in a district where Republican candidates now hold a decisive edge in recent statewide voting patterns. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability, reflecting the redistricting impact and limited remaining time before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,750Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Rick Brattin, who won the August 4 primary with an endorsement from President Trump, holds a strong position in Missouri’s 5th District after state lawmakers redrew boundaries last year to favor the GOP. The revised map incorporates more rural, conservative territory outside Kansas City, shifting the district to a Trump +58 lean and creating structural barriers for incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. Cleaver advanced unopposed in his primary but faces a path-to-victory reliant on urban turnout in a district where Republican candidates now hold a decisive edge in recent statewide voting patterns. Traders assign the Republican Party an 83.5% implied probability, reflecting the redistricting impact and limited remaining time before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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