Missouri's 4th congressional district carries a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee a 92% implied probability following Mark Alford's decisive August 4 primary win with roughly 78% of the vote against limited intra-party opposition. Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a crowded field to advance as the general election challenger. The district's electoral math, combined with Alford's incumbency and fundraising edge, underpins the current positioning. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMO-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
MO-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Democrata
9%
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$28,293 Vol.
92%
Partido Democrata
$16,249 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district carries a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee a 92% implied probability following Mark Alford's decisive August 4 primary win with roughly 78% of the vote against limited intra-party opposition. Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a crowded field to advance as the general election challenger. The district's electoral math, combined with Alford's incumbency and fundraising edge, underpins the current positioning. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$44,542Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district carries a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee a 92% implied probability following Mark Alford's decisive August 4 primary win with roughly 78% of the vote against limited intra-party opposition. Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a crowded field to advance as the general election challenger. The district's electoral math, combined with Alford's incumbency and fundraising edge, underpins the current positioning. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,542Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district carries a pronounced Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee a 92% implied probability following Mark Alford's decisive August 4 primary win with roughly 78% of the vote against limited intra-party opposition. Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a crowded field to advance as the general election challenger. The district's electoral math, combined with Alford's incumbency and fundraising edge, underpins the current positioning. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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