Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin" commands a 43.9% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, bolstered by their UMK national final triumph, OGAE fan poll victory last week, and a fiery First Semi-Final performance yesterday that secured qualification with cinematic staging and rare EBU-approved live violin. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14% after topping SF1 televote with the anthemic "Ferto," addressing greed and excess, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 12.5% on strong Melodi Grand Prix momentum and jury appeal for "Før vi går hjem" ahead of tomorrow's Second Semi-Final. With the Grand Final on May 16, jury-televote splits and SF2 qualifiers could spark shifts in this trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Vencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Finlândia 43.9%
Grécia 14.0%
Dinamarca 12.5%
Austrália 5.7%
$157,870,679 Vol.
$157,870,679 Vol.

Finlândia
44%

Grécia
14%

Dinamarca
13%

Austrália
6%

Israel
5%

França
5%

Romênia
4%

Itália
2%

Moldávia
1%

Ucrânia
1%

Croácia
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Suécia
1%

Chéquia
1%

Chipre
1%

Albânia
<1%

Noruega
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Luxemburgo
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Bélgica
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
Finlândia 43.9%
Grécia 14.0%
Dinamarca 12.5%
Austrália 5.7%
$157,870,679 Vol.
$157,870,679 Vol.

Finlândia
44%

Grécia
14%

Dinamarca
13%

Austrália
6%

Israel
5%

França
5%

Romênia
4%

Itália
2%

Moldávia
1%

Ucrânia
1%

Croácia
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Suécia
1%

Chéquia
1%

Chipre
1%

Albânia
<1%

Noruega
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Luxemburgo
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Bélgica
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin" commands a 43.9% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, bolstered by their UMK national final triumph, OGAE fan poll victory last week, and a fiery First Semi-Final performance yesterday that secured qualification with cinematic staging and rare EBU-approved live violin. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14% after topping SF1 televote with the anthemic "Ferto," addressing greed and excess, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 12.5% on strong Melodi Grand Prix momentum and jury appeal for "Før vi går hjem" ahead of tomorrow's Second Semi-Final. With the Grand Final on May 16, jury-televote splits and SF2 qualifiers could spark shifts in this trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions