Finland commands a commanding 43.9% implied probability as the Eurovision 2026 frontrunner, propelled by powerhouse duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin"—a violin-fueled ballad blending cinematic spectacle and emotional depth that dominated Finland's UMK national final and topped OGAE fan polls. Strong first-rehearsal buzz and a flawless Semi-Final 1 qualification on May 12 in Vienna cemented trader consensus on its jury-televote balance, tightening odds below 2.00 post-rehearsals. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.0% with "Ferto"'s electrifying staging earning televote hype in the same semi, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 12.3% on "Før vi går hjem"'s heartfelt Melodi Grand Prix momentum ahead of tonight's Semi-Final 2. Israel, Australia, and France trail amid unpredictable juries and diaspora voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Vencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Finlândia 43.9%
Grécia 14.0%
Dinamarca 12.3%
Austrália 5.7%
$158,017,939 Vol.
$158,017,939 Vol.

Finlândia
44%

Grécia
14%

Dinamarca
12%

Austrália
6%

Israel
5%

França
5%

Romênia
3%

Itália
2%

Moldávia
1%

Ucrânia
1%

Bulgária
1%

Croácia
1%

Malta
1%

Chéquia
1%

Suécia
1%

Chipre
1%

Albânia
<1%

Noruega
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Luxemburgo
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Bélgica
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
Finlândia 43.9%
Grécia 14.0%
Dinamarca 12.3%
Austrália 5.7%
$158,017,939 Vol.
$158,017,939 Vol.

Finlândia
44%

Grécia
14%

Dinamarca
12%

Austrália
6%

Israel
5%

França
5%

Romênia
3%

Itália
2%

Moldávia
1%

Ucrânia
1%

Bulgária
1%

Croácia
1%

Malta
1%

Chéquia
1%

Suécia
1%

Chipre
1%

Albânia
<1%

Noruega
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Luxemburgo
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Lituânia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Bélgica
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland commands a commanding 43.9% implied probability as the Eurovision 2026 frontrunner, propelled by powerhouse duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin"—a violin-fueled ballad blending cinematic spectacle and emotional depth that dominated Finland's UMK national final and topped OGAE fan polls. Strong first-rehearsal buzz and a flawless Semi-Final 1 qualification on May 12 in Vienna cemented trader consensus on its jury-televote balance, tightening odds below 2.00 post-rehearsals. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.0% with "Ferto"'s electrifying staging earning televote hype in the same semi, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 12.3% on "Før vi går hjem"'s heartfelt Melodi Grand Prix momentum ahead of tonight's Semi-Final 2. Israel, Australia, and France trail amid unpredictable juries and diaspora voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions